Contrasting patterns of local adaptation and climate resilience across forest management regimes in Norway spruce (Picea abies): implications for reforestation practices under climate change
Authors: Eklöf, H., Bernhardsson, C., Ingvarsson, P. K.
The study compares neutral genetic diversity and adaptive differentiation between old-growth and recently planted Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands in northern Sweden, finding similar overall genetic diversity but stronger local adaptation signals in natural forests. Planted stands exhibit weaker adaptive variation and higher vulnerability to future climate change, underscoring the need to conserve adaptive genetic variation in forest management.
The study applied non‑stationary generalized Pareto distributions, rooted in extreme value theory, to estimate how the risk of low yields for major crops changes over time under climate change. Analyses of global (1961‑2022) and Japanese (1948/1958‑2020) yield datasets revealed increasing low‑yield risk for most crops and regions, with only Japanese wheat showing a mitigating trend, and simulation tests confirmed the models' general accuracy, which depends on dataset size.
The study presents the first thermal performance curve for the duckweed Wolffia globosa, identifying an optimal constant growth temperature of ~32 °C and showing that projected mean temperature increases under a high‑emissions scenario would not significantly affect growth under constant conditions. However, simulated heat‑wave temperature fluctuations markedly reduce growth rates due to increased frond mortality, suggesting that while W. globosa can recover quickly, extreme temperature variability may limit its productivity.